{"id":18153,"date":"2025-02-25T22:25:49","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T22:25:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/25\/liberals-top-tories-for-1st-time-in-years-new-ipsos-polling-says\/"},"modified":"2025-02-25T22:25:49","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T22:25:49","slug":"liberals-top-tories-for-1st-time-in-years-new-ipsos-polling-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/25\/liberals-top-tories-for-1st-time-in-years-new-ipsos-polling-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Liberals top Tories for 1st time in years, new Ipsos polling says"},"content":{"rendered":"


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For the first time since 2021, Ipsos polling now shows the federal Liberal party<\/a> with a slight lead over the Conservatives<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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The poll, conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos<\/a> Public Affairs, shows if a federal election were to take place tomorrow, the Liberals<\/a> would get 38 per cent of decided voter support compared to the Conservatives\u2019 36 per cent, overturning what was a 26-point lead for the Tories just six weeks ago.<\/p>\n

According to the polling, conducted between Feb. 21 and 24 from a sample of 1,000 voting-age Canadians, the Liberals have increased their numbers by 10 points compared to the last poll by Ipsos released earlier this month. <\/a><\/p>\n

The polling is considered accurate within 3.8 percentage points, so the numbers are still within the margin of error.<\/p>\n

But the results echo multiple recent polls indicating the Liberals are closing the gap between the Conservatives in the seven weeks since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation and as the country braces for damaging U.S. tariffs set to take effect next week.<\/p>\n

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The Conservatives, meanwhile, saw a five-point drop in support among decided voters, with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois seeing declines as well, dropping to 12 per cent and six per cent respectively.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Liberal leadership is changing, Justin Trudeau has left and there\u2019s going to be a new leader of the Liberal party and I think people are interested in seeing who that\u2019s going to be,\u201d said Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe second thing is the threat from south of the border has moved us off of litigating whatever the Liberals did over the last 10 years to the here and now, which is dealing with the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n

The federal Liberals haven\u2019t seen numbers higher than the Conservatives in Ipsos polling since 2021.<\/p>\n

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Ipsos polling in early February had showed Pierre Poilievre\u2019s Conservatives with 41 per cent support among decided voters, while the Liberals sat at 28 per cent.<\/p>\n

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That was a boost from numbers in early January<\/a>, when the Liberals had sat at just 20 per cent \u2014 a near-historic low just one point off from the all-time low when the party was decimated under Michael Ignatieff in the 2011 campaign.<\/p>\n

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Bricker says the biggest movement in polling has been seen in central Canada, namely Quebec and Ontario, but Atlantic Canada has also seen a jump in Liberal support.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s basically everywhere east of the Ontario-Manitoba border that seems to be looking at the Liberals more, the Conservatives are still looking pretty good in Western Canada,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n

For the past year, Poilievre and the Conservatives have been framing the upcoming federal election as hinging on voters\u2019 feelings about the carbon price.<\/p>\n

But the two most prominent Liberal leadership hopefuls, former central banker Mark Carney and former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, have backed away from the Liberals\u2019 consumer carbon price.<\/p>\n