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\u201cIt is probably the lowest heartbeat election in a major jurisdiction that I can remember in many years \u2014 it\u2019s almost like it\u2019s not going on and people haven\u2019t noticed very much,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n
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\u201cSo far, really a low-intensity campaign. It seems that people really, at the moment in Ontario, are more focused on things, like, for example, Canada-U.S. relations, which really is more of a national issue \u2026 so they\u2019re not paying attention to how this election campaign is playing out.\u201d<\/p>\n
The latest polling suggests the Progressive Conservatives could record a bigger win than in 2022, even with a drop of four points since the start of the campaign.<\/p>\n
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In 2022, the PCs pulled 41 per cent of the popular vote, compared to Friday\u2019s poll lead of 46 points. The Liberals and NDP recorded 24 per cent in 2022 and are tracking at 25 and 21 per cent respectively.<\/p>\n
The Greens recorded six per cent in 2022 and eight per cent in the latest poll.<\/p>\n
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Ford launched the election under the threat of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, arguing he needed an increased mandate from the electorate to stimulate the economy.<\/p>\n
The PC leader has strictly adhered to that campaign plan under the banner Protect Ontario, unveiling tariff-related spending plans and little else. He has also made two trips to Washington D.C., in his capacity as premier of a caretaker government, with campaign aids also in tow.<\/p>\n
That message, Bricker said, is serving Ford well.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\tMore on Politics<\/button>More videos<\/button>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\u201cWhat we\u2019ve seen emerge during the course of the election campaign is obviously Canada-U.S. relations and economic issues that relate to our pending trade difficulties with the United States and they really seem to be dominating the agenda,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo to the extent that any leader could read what this election was about, Doug Ford couldn\u2019t have read it any better.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Ipsos polling shows the No. 1 issue for people in Ontario is health care at 45 per cent. It\u2019s an issue the Liberals hold a five-point lead over the Progressive Conservatives on.<\/p>\n
The next three most important issues \u2014 help with the cost of day-to-day needs, lower taxes and the economy and jobs \u2014 all favour the PCs.<\/p>\n
The poll showed no party was seen as the best to handle helping to make housing more affordable, while the NDP had a 13-point lead on the next most important issue, the creation of affordable housing.<\/p>\n
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Overall, the PCs were chosen as the most competent party to deliver for five of the top nine most important issues.<\/p>\n
The final week of the campaign, as more voters consider their options, could see more movement, Bricker said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is a week to go and what we\u2019ve noticed in elections, not just in Canada but worldwide, is we tend to see out most of the movement in election campaigns right near the very end,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut how that could move in this, in this particular circumstance is difficult to say because it\u2019s been so steady.\u201d<\/p>\n
METHODOLOGY:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>This Ipsos poll was conducted between Feb. 18 and 20, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 800 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample\u2019s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured <\/em>using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within \u00b1 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<\/section><\/div>\n\n
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