{"id":16641,"date":"2025-02-16T15:39:59","date_gmt":"2025-02-16T15:39:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/16\/canadas-inflation-in-january-likely-saw-little-change-heres-why-national\/"},"modified":"2025-02-16T15:39:59","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T15:39:59","slug":"canadas-inflation-in-january-likely-saw-little-change-heres-why-national","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/16\/canadas-inflation-in-january-likely-saw-little-change-heres-why-national\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada\u2019s inflation in January likely saw little change. Here\u2019s why – National"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Economists expect little movement in Canada\u2019s inflation<\/a> numbers, if any, when January data is released this week, though the underlying change in prices will be clouded by a full month of the government\u2019s GST break<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Statistics Canada\u2019s consumer price index for the first month of 2025 is set to be released on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s annual inflation rate ticked down to 1.8 per cent in December, in large part because of the federal government\u2019s pause on sales tax for an array of goods heading into the Christmas holidays. Restaurant food purchases and alcohol bought from stores contributed the most to the deceleration \u2014 both received the GST reprieve when it began on Dec. 14.<\/p>\n

Without the tax break, however, Statistics Canada estimated inflation would have instead risen to 2.2 per cent from 1.9 per cent.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe broader story is inflation is \u2014 even when you take out that special (tax break) factor \u2014 is close to two per cent. Maybe a little bit above,\u201d said BMO chief economist Doug Porter, who is expecting the inflation rate to hold steady.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe\u2019re in a much better place than we were a year ago, let alone two or three years ago, when inflation was running hot.\u201d<\/p>\n

RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen expects inflation to tick down again to 1.7 per cent, also because of the temporary tax break.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe tax holiday will continue to muddy inflation readings until March when we can get a cleaner read of the consumer price index that are clear of distortions,\u201d Janzen wrote in a note to clients.<\/p>\n

\u201cStill, the Bank of Canada will be focused on their preferred \u2018core\u2019 (consumer price index) measures, which exclude the impact of indirect taxes, for clues on how underlying inflation trends are shaping up.\u201d<\/p>\n