{"id":15576,"date":"2025-02-10T15:47:42","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T15:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/10\/battle-between-ontario-liberals-ndp-heads-up-in-battleground-toronto-st-pauls\/"},"modified":"2025-02-10T15:47:42","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T15:47:42","slug":"battle-between-ontario-liberals-ndp-heads-up-in-battleground-toronto-st-pauls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/10\/battle-between-ontario-liberals-ndp-heads-up-in-battleground-toronto-st-pauls\/","title":{"rendered":"Battle between Ontario Liberals, NDP heads up in battleground Toronto-St. Paul\u2019s"},"content":{"rendered":"


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The few square kilometres of Toronto-St. Paul\u2019s are home to several new-build condominiums, trendy bistros, high-end hair salons and gated houses with manicured lawns.<\/p>\n

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The area is also the site of a food bank that has seen record attendance since the COVID-19 pandemic, several tenant advocacy organizations and a long-delayed Eglinton LRT project in its north end.<\/p>\n

The provincial riding of more than 116,000 residents is representative of the city\u2019s diversity at a cultural, economic and social level. It\u2019s also symbolic of fierce competition between\u00a0<\/strong>the NDP and Liberals as voters head to the polls on Feb. 27 and could show\u00a0<\/strong>how long-term incumbency influences voter decisions, one expert says.<\/p>\n

For nearly two decades, the riding was considered a Liberal stronghold. That changed in 2018, when New Democrat Jill Andrew won with a roughly 2.5 per cent lead, flipping the seat from red to orange and holding on to it ever since.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe question is whether this is going to be a race in which people are voting in this riding, at least, against the Ford government \u2014 in which case you have to choose between the incumbent New Democrat or a Liberal member,\u201d said Robert Drummond, a professor emeritus at York University.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re simply wanting to indicate your unhappiness with the current government, why would you give up an incumbent for someone who\u2019s not an incumbent? Though, there was only three percentage points separating them in the last vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Drummond said one explanation behind the 2018 seat flip was voter dissatisfaction with former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne.<\/p>\n

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\u201cMaybe, in some cases, people said, \u2018Well, we\u2019re not happy with the Liberal government, but we don\u2019t want to vote for the Conservatives, so we\u2019ll park our votes with the NDP for now,\u2019\u201d Drummond said. \u201cI\u2019m not sure whether there\u2019s a change coming as people begin to see a new leader in the Liberal party.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Toronto-St. Paul\u2019s Liberal candidate Stephanie Smyth said a desire for change is the reason why her party lost in that riding in the 2018 and 2022 provincial elections.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it was time for a change, people just felt like their voice wasn\u2019t being heard in one way or another,\u201d Smyth, a former journalist and CP24 anchor,\u00a0<\/strong>said in a recent phone interview. \u201cAnd I think that you\u2019ve now had NDP for two terms, and I think people are ready for the Liberals to take it back with me.\u201d<\/p>\n

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