{"id":15323,"date":"2025-02-06T18:58:25","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T18:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/06\/conservatives-still-on-top-but-race-tightens-after-trudeaus-departure-ipsos-national\/"},"modified":"2025-02-06T18:58:25","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T18:58:25","slug":"conservatives-still-on-top-but-race-tightens-after-trudeaus-departure-ipsos-national","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/06\/conservatives-still-on-top-but-race-tightens-after-trudeaus-departure-ipsos-national\/","title":{"rendered":"Conservatives still on top, but race tightens after Trudeau\u2019s departure: Ipsos &#8211; National"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n<p>The Liberal Party appears to be enjoying a polling bump at the expense of the Conservatives after Prime Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/tag\/justin-trudeau\">Justin Trudeau\u2019s<\/a> announcement he will not lead the party into the next election, according to the latest numbers from Ipsos Research for Global News.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Trudeau\u2019s pending departure and the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war seem to be tightening the race in federal voting intention, despite voters not knowing who will become the next Liberal leader and prime minister.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/tag\/pierre-poilievre\/\">Pierre Poilievre<\/a>\u2019s Conservatives still have a commanding lead in the national poll, with 41 per cent of respondents saying they\u2019d vote for the party if an election were held tomorrow. That\u2019s a 13 percentage point lead over the governing Liberals (28 per cent), according to the poll taken while the imminent threat of Trump\u2019s tariffs loomed.<\/p>\n<p>But the Liberals have seen an eight percentage point jump in their numbers compared with Ipsos\u2019s survey in early January, largely at the expense of Poilievre\u2019s Conservatives, who were down five percentage points over that same period.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad--bigbox l-article__ad\">\n<p>Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats are in a distant third in Ipsos\u2019s latest survey with 16 per cent support, followed by the Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois with nine per cent.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo the degree that Justin Trudeau was an impediment to the Liberal government\u2019s success in a future election, he\u2019s gone, and so that issue is gone away. Obviously, there\u2019s a fair bit that sticks to the party too, but at least as a personality, he\u2019s gone,\u201d Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said in an interview with Global News Thursday.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-tabs\">\n<p>\n\t\t\t<button role=\"tab\" class=\"c-tabs__tab c-tabs__tab--active\" type=\"button\">More on Canada<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t<button role=\"tab\" class=\"c-tabs__tab\" type=\"button\">More videos<\/button>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cBut even more than that has been the ascent of Donald Trump and the fact that he announced that we\u2019re going to have a 25 per cent tariff, even though it\u2019s been off and on, all the comments he\u2019s made about [Canada] being the 51st\u00a0state, has vaulted that up to being probably the top issue in the minds of Canadians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Ipsos poll surveyed 1,000 voting-aged Canadians online between Jan. 30 and Feb. 3 and is considered accurate within 3.8 percentage points.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-inlineSignup\" data-newsletter-inline=\"\">\n<div class=\"c-inlineSignup__image\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"170\" height=\"225\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/wp-content\/themes\/shaw-globalnews\/images\/skyline\/national.jpg\" alt=\"For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.\"\/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-inlineSignup__content\">\n<h3>Get breaking National news<\/h3>\n<p>For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Regionally, things still look pretty rosy for Poilievre and the Conservatives. In Ontario, they lead with 46 per cent of respondents saying they\u2019d vote Conservative compared with 34 per cent for the Liberals and 13 per cent for the NDP.<\/p>\n<p>The Conservatives are leading in every region of the country except for Quebec, according to Ipsos\u2019s numbers, including in the former Liberal stronghold of Atlantic Canada, where Poilievre\u2019s party enjoys 43 per cent support to the Grits\u2019 37 per cent.<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad--bigbox l-article__ad\">\n<p>Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Regional breakdowns have a smaller sample size and, therefore, a larger margin of error, but still give a sense of the mood of the electorate across the country.<\/p>\n<p>The Conservatives\u2019 numbers are still firmly in majority territory, Bricker said, particularly given the importance of Ontario\u2019s seats to which party ultimately forms government.<\/p>\n<p>But while the Conservatives are in pole position, Bricker said they need to pay attention to whether the recent Liberal bump \u2013 which has also been reflected in recent numbers from other polling companies \u2013 becomes a trend.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s momentum [for the Liberals], so the question is: is it sustained? If it tightens up, we\u2019re going to actually have an election contest,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n<section id=\"content-dynamic-trending-stories\" class=\"l-inlineStories l-inlineStories--tile u-hide-tablet-landscape\" aria-label=\"Dynamic trending stories section\">\n<p>\n\t\t<span class=\"l-inlineStories__title c-heading c-heading--strikethrough\">Trending Now<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<ul class=\"l-inlineStories__posts c-posts c-posts--inline \">\n<li class=\"c-posts__item\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11005050\/u-s-tariff-quebec-canadian-layoffs-workers\/\" class=\"c-posts__inner\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"c-posts__media \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"c-posts__thumbnail\" data-src=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/8780791ad9955d6975caa511864dc90a2312adee6d7a836d024ea5fbb6a81914_4a8925.jpg?quality=85&amp;strip=all&amp;w=336&amp;h=224&amp;crop=1\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"336\" height=\"224\" alt=\"\"\/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-posts__details\">\n<p>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"c-posts__headlineText\" title=\"U.S. tariff threat: Quebec furniture company lays off 115 workers after sales drop\" data-title=\"\">U.S. tariff threat: Quebec furniture company lays off 115 workers after sales drop<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/li>\n<li class=\"c-posts__item\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11005023\/steve-bannon-donald-trump-tariffs-canada-arctic-interview\/\" class=\"c-posts__inner\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"c-posts__media \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"c-posts__thumbnail\" data-src=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/steve-bannon-war-room-interview-trump-illustration.jpg?quality=85&amp;strip=all&amp;w=336&amp;h=224&amp;crop=1\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"336\" height=\"224\" alt=\"\"\/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-posts__details\">\n<p>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"c-posts__headlineText\" title=\"Trump\u2019s plan for \u2018hemispheric control\u2019: Steve Bannon on why tariffs may only be the start\" data-title=\"\">Trump\u2019s plan for \u2018hemispheric control\u2019: Steve Bannon on why tariffs may only be the start<\/span>\n\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<p>\u201c[The numbers] still advantage the Conservatives, obviously, because \u2018time for a change\u2019 is still a fantastic ballot question.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"c-ad c-ad--bigbox l-article__ad\">\n<p>Story continues below advertisement<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>For the past year, Poilievre and the Conservatives have been framing the upcoming federal election as hinging on voters\u2019 feelings about the carbon price. But the two most prominent Liberal leadership hopefuls, former central banker Mark Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, have backed away from the Liberals\u2019 consumer carbon price.<\/p>\n<p>And Trump, with his continued threat of crippling tariffs on Canadian exports, represents a much larger economic danger both to individual workers and the economy writ large.<\/p>\n<p>Bricker said Poilievre has been adept at tapping into voters\u2019 anger with the Liberals and the rising cost of living. The question for him is which leader can most effectively address voters\u2019 fears and concerns over a potentially catastrophic trade war with Canada\u2019s largest economic partner and its unpredictable commander-in-chief.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe candidate that best matches the mood is the one that has the advantage,\u201d Bricker said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe question for me is, we already know who wins on anger. If you\u2019re really angry, you\u2019re going to vote for the Conservatives.\u2026 (But) the other emotion and mood is fear and concern, and who wins on that? Who can provide reassurance and confidence about the future?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\n\t\t&amp;copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.\t<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><script defer src=\"https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/sdk.js#xfbml=1&#038;appId=318812448281278&#038;version=v3.3\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/globalnews.ca\/news\/11006892\/conservatives-on-top-but-race-tightens-after-trudeau\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Liberal Party appears to be enjoying a polling bump at the expense of the Conservatives after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s announcement he will not lead the party into the next election, according to the latest numbers from Ipsos Research for Global News. Trudeau\u2019s pending departure and the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s trade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Conservatives still on top, but race tightens after Trudeau\u2019s departure: Ipsos - National - Toronto Tribune<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/torontotribune.ca\/index.php\/2025\/02\/06\/conservatives-still-on-top-but-race-tightens-after-trudeaus-departure-ipsos-national\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Conservatives still on top, but race tightens after Trudeau\u2019s departure: Ipsos - National - Toronto Tribune\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Liberal Party appears to be enjoying a polling bump at the expense of the Conservatives after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s announcement he will not lead the party into the next election, according to the latest numbers from Ipsos Research for Global News. 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