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Though tariffs were never formally imposed after Colombia struck a last-minute deal with the U.S., arabica prices hit a new high on Monday and have continued climbing since.<\/p>\n
The flash conflict over the weekend spurred some \u201cpanic\u201d in the coffee market that has persisted in part because of fears that Trump could change his mind on Colombia or impose similar tariffs on other South or Central American countries amid ongoing immigration and trade crackdowns, von Massow says.<\/p>\n
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Trump on Monday named major coffee exporter Brazil among those he believes meant the U.S. \u201charm,\u201d threatening potential tariffs, which Brazil\u2019s president has vowed would be met with \u201creciprocity.\u201d<\/p>\n
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If Trump does end up imposing tariffs targeting agricultural exports from foreign nations, the impact on global prices would be \u201ccomplex,\u201d von Massow says.<\/p>\n
If Colombian coffee is hit with a tariff, the price of arabica in the U.S. might not shift much because there are other places to get the bean, if businesses are able to adjust their supply chains quickly enough.<\/p>\n
When it comes to products like Colombian-cut flowers, those prices may fall for Canadians if growers are suddenly cut off from the U.S. market. Possible tariffs on flowers would represent a particular threat right now because production timelines are planned out far in advance and are likely set to peak ahead of Valentine\u2019s Day.<\/p>\n
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\u201cThose flowers would have to go somewhere. They can\u2019t be held in storage. So the prices would come down,\u201d von Massow says.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the U.S. starts trade wars with countries around the world, there may be actually some benefits to Canadians. Assuming he doesn\u2019t put those tariffs on us, too.\u201d<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\tMore on Lifestyle<\/button>More videos<\/button>\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nWhile actual U.S. tariffs could have a variety of impacts on markets \u2014 possibly pushing prices down for some countries, while driving costs up for those caught up in a trade war \u2014 von Massow says the supply crunch and weak loonie will have a greater impact and put \u201cupward pressure\u201d on Canadian coffee prices in the months ahead.<\/p>\n
Pesce says he doesn\u2019t expect much normalization in the coffee market until at least June, when there\u2019s hopefully more clarity on the trade front and a sense of how next year\u2019s crop is shaping up. Until then, he says Canadians should expect a higher cost per cup of joe or bag of coffee.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn real dollars, we\u2019re talking about an extra $1-to-$2 per pound of coffee,\u201d he says. \u201cWhat that amounts to per cup will be relatively low, but it\u2019s still going to be impactful when you\u2019re buying a bag of coffee to drink at home, for sure.\u201d<\/p>\n
Coffee giant Starbucks, meanwhile, said this week it would not make any further price hikes this year as it looks to appeal to consumers paring back on big non-essential spending.<\/p>\n
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\u2014 with files from Global News\u2019s Anne Gaviola, Reuters<\/em><\/p>\n\n
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