November saw Toronto’s housing market regain some momentum, with sales improving, but with some complexities.
Home Sales Show Gains
Seasonally adjusted home sales in Toronto rose by 1.9% month-over-month (m/m) in November. However, October’s figures were revised downward by 1%, making November’s gains appear slightly stronger than they truly were. Despite this adjustment, sales remain up by an impressive 39% compared to November last year. Detached home sales in the 416 area showed particularly robust growth, nearly 50% higher year-over-year (y/y).
Over the past two months, the sales trend has shown notable improvements in both the condo and single-family home segments. However, demand overall remains subdued compared to the historical averages from the past decade, though conditions have improved since the summer.
Source: Edge Realty Analytics
New Listings Rise
New listings across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) rose by 4.4% m/m and 10% y/y in November, making it the busiest November for new listings since 2017. According to an Edge Realty Analytics report, as sales gradually recover, there remains uncertainty regarding how much new supply will enter the market. Elevated supply could temper typical price growth that might otherwise result from increasing sales. The report anticipates that listing levels will remain above average through 2025.
Source: Edge Realty Analytics
Inventory
Active listings in the GTA were up 30% y/y. After reaching 15-year highs in inventory in September and October, single-family home supply dipped slightly below 2017 levels in November. The condo segment continues to face record-high inventory levels.
Market Conditions
Supply outpaced sales in November, leading to a weakening in market balance, as noted in the report. The sales-to-new-listings ratio slipped to 43% from 45% in the prior month, keeping it close to historic lows.
Source: Edge Realty Analytics
Despite this, months of inventory showed slight improvement, dropping below 2023 levels for both condos and single-family homes.
Source: Edge Realty Analytics
Prices See Mixed Movement
The MLS House Price Index recorded an 0.8% m/m increase in November, marking the strongest monthly rise since mid-2022; however, seasonally adjusted average prices fell by 0.6% m/m. This is notable, given the supply and demand balance, and should be monitored, according to the report.
Housing Starts Decline
Housing starts in the GTA dropped significantly, down 33% y/y in October across all housing types. As of now, there are approximately 102,000 dwellings under construction across the GTA. If housing starts continue to slow while project completions accelerate, the total number of dwellings in the pipeline is likely to decrease. Nearly 75% of the units under construction are condos, indicating that the condo market will likely remain well-supplied through 2025 and into 2026.
